Showing posts with label speculation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label speculation. Show all posts

Friday, July 30, 2010

Velogames Number Crunching: Stage 18

Explanation here.

Value Team, Stage 18;

All Rounders:
Score: 1177 Cost: 22 Rider: Andy SCHLECK
Score: 1048 Cost: 28 Rider: Alberto CONTADOR

Category Total Score, cost 2225 50
Category % of Score, cost 36.57% 51.02%

Climbers:
Score: 728 Cost: 14 Rider: Samuel SÁNCHEZ
Score: 505 Cost: 10 Rider: Joaquim RODRIGUEZ

Category Total Score, cost 1233 24
Category % of Score, cost 20.26% 24.49%

Domestiques:
Score: 530 Cost: 4 Rider: José Joaquin ROJAS
Score: 394 Cost: 2 Rider: Geraint THOMAS
Score: 266 Cost: 2 Rider: Sebastien TURGOT

Category Total Score, cost 1190 8
Category % of Score, cost 19.56% 8.16%

Wildcard:
Score: 492 Cost: 4 Rider: Jurgen VAN DEN BROECK

Category Total Score, cost 492 4
Category % of Score, cost 8.09% 4.08%

Sprinter:
Score: 945 Cost: 12 Rider: Alessandro PETACCHI

Category Total Score, cost 945 12
Category % of Score, cost 15.53% 12.24%

Grand Total Score, Cost: 6085 98

No change beyond score in the value team.

High Score Team;

All Rounders:
Score: 1177 Cost: 22 Rider: Andy SCHLECK
Score: 571 Cost: 16 Rider: Denis MENCHOV

Category Total Score, cost 1748 38
Category % of Score, cost 28.60% 38.00%

Climbers:
Score: 728 Cost: 14 Rider: Samuel SÁNCHEZ
Score: 298 Cost: 6 Rider: Pierrick FEDRIGO

Category Total Score, Cost 1026 20
Category % of Score, Cost 16.79% 20.00%

Domestiques:
Score: 612 Cost: 6 Rider: Sylvain CHAVANEL
Score: 530 Cost: 4 Rider: José Joaquin ROJAS
Score: 394 Cost: 2 Rider: Geraint THOMAS

Category Total Score, Cost 1536 12
Category % of Score, Cost 25.14% 12.00%

Sprinter:
Score: 945 Cost: 12 Rider: Alessandro PETACCHI

Category Total Score, Cost 945 12
Category % of Score, Cost 15.46% 12.00%

Wildcard:
Score: 856 Cost: 18 Rider: Thor HUSHOVD

Category Total Score, Cost 856 18
Category % of Score, Cost 14.01% 18.00%

Grand totals, Score, Cost 6111 100

Other than score, the only change in the high score team is to see Petacchi and Hushovd change places again. It's interesting to see the scores for the High Score team and value team converge, although I'm still fairly certain my methodology has selected the highest scoring team possible for 100 credits.

Velogames Number Crunching: Stage 17

Explanation Here.

Stage 17 Value Team;
All Rounders:
Score: 1141 Cost: 22 Rider: Andy SCHLECK
Score: 1004 Cost: 28 Rider: Alberto CONTADOR

Category Total Score, Cost 2145 50
Category % of Score, Cost 38.40% 53.19%

Climbers:
Score: 702 Cost: 14 Rider: Samuel SÁNCHEZ
Score: 298 Cost: 6 Rider: Pierrick FEDRIGO

Category Total Score, cost 1000 20
Category % of Score, cost 17.90% 21.28%

Domestiques:
Score: 484 Cost: 4 Rider: José Joaquin ROJAS
Score: 394 Cost: 2 Rider: Geraint THOMAS
Score: 256 Cost: 2 Rider: Sebastien TURGOT

Category Total Score, cost 1134 8
Category % of Score, cost 20.30% 8.51%

Wildcard:
Score: 474 Cost: 4 Rider: Jurgen VAN DEN BROECK

Category Total Score, cost 474 4
Category % of Score, cost 8.49% 4.26%

Sprinter:
Score: 833 Cost: 12 Rider: Alessandro PETACCHI

Category Total Score, cost 833 12
Category % of Score, cost 14.91% 12.77%

Grand Totals, Score, Cost 5586 94

Some changes here, perhaps the most significant being the appearance of Alberto Contador, who's taken a while to score highly enough to represent good value for his high credit cost. Jurgen Van Den Broeck also displaces Maxime Bouet as the team wildcard, his riding belying his classification as a "Domestique" in the mountains. The value team is still well within the credit budget, 6 credits under the maximum team cost of 100.

Stage 17 High Score Team:

All Rounders:
Score: 1141 Cost: 22 Rider: Andy SCHLECK
Score: 550 Cost: 16 Rider: Denis MENCHOV

Category Total Score, cost 1691 38
Category % of Score, cost 28.85% 38.00%

Climbers:
Score: 702 Cost: 14 Rider: Samuel SÁNCHEZ
Score: 298 Cost: 6 Rider: Pierrick FEDRIGO

Category Total Score, cost 1000 20
Category % of Score, cost 17.06% 20.00%

Domestiques:
Score: 612 Cost: 6 Rider: Sylvain CHAVANEL
Score: 484 Cost: 4 Rider: José Joaquin ROJAS
Score: 394 Cost: 2 Rider: Geraint THOMAS

Category Total Score, cost 1490 12
Category % of Score, cost 25.42% 12.00%

Sprinter:
Score: 848 Cost: 18 Rider: Thor HUSHOVD

Category Total Score, cost 848 18
Category % of Score, cost 14.47% 18.00%

Wildcard:
Score: 833 Cost: 12 Rider: Alessandro PETACCHI

Category Total Score, cost 833 12
Category % of Score, cost 14.21% 12.00%

Grand Totals, Score, Cost: 5862 100

In the high score team, Denis Menchov replaces Alexandre Vinokourov, his credit value and score making him a good swap to get the credit cost down to 100.

At this point in the game, the winning team had a score of 4970, giving our value team a lead of 616 points, and the high score team a lead of 692.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Velogames Number Crunching: Stage 16

Explanation here;

Value Team;
All Rounders:
Score: 925 Cost: 22 Rider: Andy SCHLECK
Score: 473 Cost: 16 Rider: Alexandre VINOKOUROV

Category Total Score, cost 1398 38
Category % of Score, cost 31.28% 47.50%

Climbers:
Score: 596 Cost: 14 Rider: Samuel SÁNCHEZ
Score: 298 Cost: 6 Rider: Pierrick FEDRIGO

Category Total Score, cost 894 20
Category % of Score, cost 20.00% 25.00%

Domestiques:
Score: 478 Cost: 4 Rider: José Joaquin ROJAS
Score: 394 Cost: 2 Rider: Geraint THOMAS
Score: 256 Cost: 2 Rider: Sebastien TURGOT

Category Total Score, cost 1128 8
Category % of Score, cost 25.23% 10.00%

Wildcard:
Score: 225 Cost: 2 Rider: Maxime BOUET

Category Total Score, cost 225 2
Category % of Score, cost 5.03% 2.50%

Sprinter:
Score: 825 Cost: 12 Rider: Alessandro PETACCHI

Category Total Score, cost 825 12
Category % of Score, cost 18.46% 15.00%

Grand Totals, Score, Cost 4470 80

High Score Team;
All Rounders:
Score: 925 Cost: 22 Rider: Andy SCHLECK
Score: 473 Cost: 16 Rider: Alexandre VINOKOUROV

Category Total Score, cost 1398 38
Category % of Score, cost 25.71% 38.00%

Climbers:
Score: 596 Cost: 14 Rider: Samuel SÁNCHEZ
Score: 298 Cost: 6 Rider: Pierrick FEDRIGO

Category Total Score, cost 894 20
Category % of Score, cost 16.44% 20.00%

Domestiques:
Score: 612 Cost: 6 Rider: Sylvain CHAVANEL
Score: 478 Cost: 4 Rider: José Joaquin ROJAS
Score: 394 Cost: 2 Rider: Geraint THOMAS

Category Total Score, cost 1484 12
Category % of Score, cost 27.29% 12.00%

Sprinter:
Score: 836 Cost: 18 Rider: Thor HUSHOVD

Category Total Score, cost 836 18
Category % of Score, cost 15.38% 18.00%

Wildcard:
Score: 825 Cost: 12 Rider: Alessandro PETACCHI

Category Total Score, cost 825 12
Category % of Score, cost 15.17% 12.00%

Grand Totals, Score, Cost 5437 100

At last, a change, largely thanks to Pierrick Fedrigo's exploits, and his classification as a climber. In the high score team, Petacchi and Hushovd change places once again.

Velogames Number Crunching: Stage 15

Explanation here;

Value Team:
All Rounders:
Score: 895 Cost: 22 Rider: Andy SCHLECK
Score: 456 Cost: 16 Rider: Alexandre VINOKOUROV

Category Total Score, cost 1351 38
Category % of Score, cost 30.57% 45.24%

Climbers:
Score: 571 Cost: 14 Rider: Samuel SÁNCHEZ
Score: 344 Cost: 10 Rider: Joaquim RODRIGUEZ

Category Total Score, cost 915 24
Category % of Score, cost 20.71% 28.57%

Domestiques:
Score: 461 Cost: 4 Rider: José Joaquin ROJAS
Score: 394 Cost: 2 Rider: Geraint THOMAS
Score: 256 Cost: 2 Rider: Sebastien TURGOT

Category Total Score, cost 1111 8
Category % of Score, cost 25.14% 9.52%

Wildcard:
Score: 225 Cost: 2 Rider: Maxime BOUET

Category Total Score, cost 225 2
Category % of Score, cost 5.09% 2.38%

Sprinter:
Score: 817 Cost: 12 Rider: Alessandro PETACCHI

Category Total Score, cost 817 12
Category % of Score, cost 18.49% 14.29%

Grand Totals, Score, Cost 4419 84

High Score Team;
All Rounders:
Score: 895 Cost: 22 Rider: Andy SCHLECK
Score: 456 Cost: 16 Rider: Alexandre VINOKOUROV

Category Total Score, Cost 1351 38
Category % of Score, Cost 25.97% 38.00%

Climbers:
Score: 571 Cost: 14 Rider: Samuel SÁNCHEZ
Score: 193 Cost: 6 Rider: Vasil KIRYIENKA

Category Total Score, Cost 764 20
Category % of Score, Cost 14.68% 20.00%

Domestiques:
Score: 612 Cost: 6 Rider: Sylvain CHAVANEL
Score: 461 Cost: 4 Rider: José Joaquin ROJAS
Score: 394 Cost: 2 Rider: Geraint THOMAS

Category Total Score, Cost 1467 12
Category % of Score, Cost 28.20% 12.00%

Sprinter:
Score: 817 Cost: 12 Rider: Alessandro PETACCHI

Category Total Score, Cost 817 12
Category % of Score, Cost 15.70% 12.00%

Wildcard:
Score: 804 Cost: 18 Rider: Thor HUSHOVD

Category Total Score, Cost 804 18
Category % of Score, Cost 15.45% 18.00%

Grand Totals, Score, Cost 5203 100

No changes in the riders in the value team or high score team after Stage 15.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Velogames Number Crunching: Stage 13

Explanation here.

Value Team:
All Rounders:
Score: 730 Cost: 22 Rider: Andy SCHLECK
Score: 426 Cost: 16 Rider: Alexandre VINOKOUROV

Category Total Score, cost 1156 38
Category % of Score, cost 30.58% 47.50%

Climbers:
Score: 370 Cost: 14 Rider: Samuel SÁNCHEZ
Score: 181 Cost: 6 Rider: Vasil KIRYIENKA

Category Total Score, cost 551 20
Category % of Score, cost 14.58% 25.00%

Domestiques:
Score: 447 Cost: 4 Rider: José Joaquin ROJAS
Score: 384 Cost: 2 Rider: Geraint THOMAS
Score: 229 Cost: 2 Rider: Sebastien TURGOT

Category Total Score, cost 1060 8
Category % of Score, cost 28.04% 10.00%

Wildcard:
Score: 220 Cost: 2 Rider: Maxime BOUET

Category Total Score, cost 220 2
Category % of Score, cost 5.82% 2.50%

Sprinter:
Score: 793 Cost: 12 Rider: Alessandro PETACCHI

Category Total Score, cost 793 12
Category % of Score, cost 20.98% 15.00%

Grand Totals (score, cost) 3780 80

The value team changes at last on Stage 13, with Sylvain Chavanel finally displaced, and Vinokourov's recent strong finishes, and relatively low credit value moving him into place in the all rounder category. You can also see the way that the percentage of the total score continues to move in favour of the GC contenders.

And the High Score Team;
All Rounders:
Score: 730 Cost: 22 Rider: Andy SCHLECK
Score: 426 Cost: 16 Rider: Alexandre VINOKOUROV

Category Total Score, cost 1156 38
Category % of Score, cost 24.43% 38.00%

Climbers:
Score: 370 Cost: 14 Rider: Samuel SÁNCHEZ
Score: 181 Cost: 6 Rider: Vasil KIRYIENKA

Category Total Score, cost 551 20
Category % of Score, cost 11.65% 20.00%

Domestiques:
Score: 612 Cost: 6 Rider: Sylvain CHAVANEL
Score: 447 Cost: 4 Rider: José Joaquin ROJAS
Score: 384 Cost: 2 Rider: Geraint THOMAS

Category Total Score, cost 1443 12
Category % of Score, cost 30.50% 12.00%

Sprinter:
Score: 793 Cost: 12 Rider: Alessandro PETACCHI

Category Total Score, cost 793 12
Category % of Score, cost 16.76% 12.00%

Wildcard:
Score: 788 Cost: 18 Rider: Thor HUSHOVD

Category Total Score, cost 788 18
Category % of Score, cost 16.66% 18.00%

Grand Totals (score, cost) 4731 100

For the second stage in a row the value and high score team share the same all rounders, thanks largely to the high credit cost of Alberto Contador, who struggles to retain a place in either team (on the basis of mathematics, at least!) Stage 13 also sees the value team and high score team share their climbers.

Cancellara moves out of the high score team in favour of Rojas (not because of a low score, but because of his fairly high credit cost, as with Contador). Lastly, Hushovd and Petacchi exchange places as wildcard and sprinter, as they exchange their lead in the competition for the Maillot Vert.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Velogames Number Crunching: Stage 12

Explanation here.

The Stage 12 Value Team;

All Rounders:
Score: 686 Cost: 22 Rider: Andy SCHLECK
Score: 246 Cost: 12 Rider: Luis Leon SANCHEZ

Category Total Score, cost 932 34
Category % of Score, cost 26.14% 43.59%

Climbers:
Score: 345 Cost: 14 Rider: Samuel SÁNCHEZ
Score: 179 Cost: 6 Rider: Vasil KIRYIENKA

Category Total Score, Cost 524 20
Category % of Score, Cost 14.69% 25.64%

Domestiques:
Score: 384 Cost: 2 Rider: Geraint THOMAS
Score: 229 Cost: 2 Rider: Sebastien TURGOT
Score: 220 Cost: 2 Rider: Maxime BOUET

Category Total Score, cost 833 6
Category % of Score, cost 23.36% 7.69%

Wildcard:
Score: 596 Cost: 6 Rider: Sylvain CHAVANEL

Category Total Score, cost: 596 6
Category % of Score, cost: 16.71% 7.69%

Sprinters:
Score: 681 Cost: 12 Rider: Alessandro PETACCHI

Category Total Score, cost 681 12
Category % of Score, cost 19.10% 15.38%

Grand Totals 3566 78

This team is unchanged from Stage 11, although you can see the relative contributions of the different categories continuing to change as we head into the mountains.

And the High Score Team;

All Rounders:
Score: 686 Cost: 22 Rider: Andy SCHLECK
Score: 246 Cost: 12 Rider: Luis Leon SANCHEZ

Category Total Score, cost 932 34
Category % of Score, cost 21.87% 34.00%

Climbers:
Score: 219 Cost: 12 Rider: Robert GESINK
Score: 179 Cost: 6 Rider: Vasil KIRYIENKA

Category Total Score, cost 398 18
Category % of Score, cost 9.34% 18.00%

Domestiques:
Score: 596 Cost: 6 Rider: Sylvain CHAVANEL
Score: 530 Cost: 10 Rider: Fabian CANCELLARA
Score: 384 Cost: 2 Rider: Geraint THOMAS

Category Total Score, cost 1510 18
Category % of Score, cost 35.44% 18.00%

Sprinter:
Score: 740 Cost: 18 Rider: Thor HUSHOVD

Category Total Score, cost 740 18
Category % of Score, cost 17.37% 18.00%

Wildcard:
Score: 681 Cost: 12 Rider: Alessandro PETACCHI

Category Total Score, cost 681 12
Category % of Score, cost 15.98% 12.00%

Grand Totals: 4261 100

In the High Score team, Evans is pushed out by Luis Leon Sanchez, and Matthew Lloyd departs in favour of Robert Gesink.

Velogames Number Crunching: Stage 11

For a bit more detail on what this is about, see this post.

Value Team for Stage 11;
All Rounders:
Score: 572 Cost: 22 Rider: Andy SCHLECK
Score: 232 Cost: 12 Rider: Luis Leon SANCHEZ

Category Total Score, 804 34
Category % of Score, 24.13% 43.59%

Climbers:
Score: 260 Cost: 14 Rider: Samuel SÁNCHEZ
Score: 167 Cost: 6 Rider: Vasil KIRYIENKA

Category Total Score, 427 20
Category % of Score, 12.82% 25.64%

Domestiques:
Score: 384 Cost: 2 Rider: Geraint THOMAS
Score: 228 Cost: 2 Rider: Sebastien TURGOT
Score: 220 Cost: 2 Rider: Maxime BOUET

Category Total Score, 832 6
Category % of Score, 24.97% 7.69%

Wildcard
Score: 596 Cost: 6 Rider: Sylvain CHAVANEL

Category Total Score, 596 6
Category % of Score, 17.89% 7.69%

Sprinter:
Score: 673 Cost: 12 Rider: Alessandro PETACCHI

Category Total Score, 673 12
Category % of Score, 20.20% 15.38%

Grand Totals: 3332 78

Changes: Evans out and Luis Leon Sanchez in, Lloyd (M) out and Sanchez in - you can see that the GC contenders and climbers are beginning to score more in these later stages.

The High Score Team for Stage 11 looks like this;

All Rounders:
Score: 572 Cost: 22 Rider: Andy SCHLECK
Score: 339 Cost: 18 Rider: Cadel EVANS

Category Total Score, Cost 911 40
Category % of Score, Cost 22.57% 40.00%

Climbers:
Score: 167 Cost: 6 Rider: Vasil KIRYIENKA
Score: 81 Cost: 6 Rider: Matthew LLOYD

Category Total Score, Cost 248 12
Category % of Score, Cost 6.14% 12.00%

Domestiques:
Score: 596 Cost: 6 Rider: Sylvain CHAVANEL
Score: 525 Cost: 10 Rider: Fabian CANCELLARA
Score: 384 Cost: 2 Rider: Geraint THOMAS

Category Total Score, Cost: 1505 18
Category % of Score, Cost: 37.28% 18.00%

Sprinters:
Score: 700 Cost: 18 Rider: Thor HUSHOVD

Category Total Score, Cost: 700 18
Category % of Score, Cost: 17.34% 18.00%

Wildcard:
Score: 673 Cost: 12 Rider: Alessandro PETACCHI

Category Total Score, Cost: 673 12
Category % of Score, Cost: 16.67% 12.00%

Grand Totals 4037 100

As you can see, nothing's changed in the High Score Team other than the score itself.

At this point in the competition, the Value Team would lead the overall by 110 points (the stage 11 leader having 3222) and the High Score Team by some 815 points.